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How we score races

The Priority Score

Every race is assigned a score from 0–1000 based on seven weighted components. A score of 700+ means this race is close, the candidates are strong, fundraising momentum favors the progressive, and the office has real power. These are the races where your time and money will have the most impact.

Formula

score = (poll_closeness × 0.35
       + fundraising × 0.20
       + power × 0.11
       + c1_voting × 0.10
       + c2_voting × 0.10
       + c1_endorsements × 0.07
       + c2_endorsements × 0.07) × 1000

Score Components

Poll Closeness

35%

The most important factor. Races within 5 points score highest. Uses a bell-curve so a 1-point race scores far higher than a 10-point race. Polls older than 100 days are excluded; races with no recent polls score 0 on this component.

Fundraising Momentum

20%

Combines two signals. Cash parity scores higher when the Republican is outspending the Democrat — that's where your donation has the most impact. Quarterly momentum scores higher when Dem receipts are growing, signaling a viable campaign worth backing. Each sub-signal accounts for half this component. Defaults to neutral when FEC data isn't available.

Office Power

11%

Senate seats carry more weight than House seats based on their structural electoral impact. A senator from a competitive state can shift the balance of the chamber.

Voting Record (Poll Leader)

10%

The Progressive Punch score of the candidate leading in polls. A candidate with a 95% progressive voting record scores higher than one at 40%. Challengers with no record get a 75% benefit-of-the-doubt default.

Voting Record (Challenger)

10%

Same methodology applied to the trailing candidate. A regressive opponent (low progressive score) actually increases this component — flipping a bad vote is worth more.

Endorsements (Poll Leader)

7%

Endorsements from major progressive organizations including Justice Democrats, Bold Progressives, Sunrise Movement, and others. Score scales with the number of endorsing orgs (out of 9 tracked).

Endorsements (Challenger)

7%

Same endorsement scoring for the trailing candidate. Heavily endorsed challengers with strong records bubble up in the rankings.

Urgency Levels

700+ URGENT

This race is extremely close and the office is powerful. Prioritize here first.

500+ IMPORTANT

Competitive race worth watching. Contribute after covering URGENT races.

under 500 MONITOR

Likely safe or lacks current polling. Check back as election approaches.

Data Sources

  • Polling data: Ballotpedia race pages, refreshed every 6 hours.
  • Fundraising: FEC API official filings, updated weekly.
  • Ratings: Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections.
  • Voting records: Progressive Punch congressional scorecards.
  • Endorsements: Justice Democrats, Bold Progressives, Sunrise Movement, and others.
  • Scores: Recomputed daily at 7am ET.