Texas · Senate
Election Day · Nov 3, 2026
Score updated Oct 14, 2026
Read more on BallotpediaA true toss-up. This race could go either way.
Forecasters: Toss-Up · Latest poll: tied · $21.5M vs $1.8M cash on hand
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| Pollster | Paid for by | Date | D% | R% | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | None listed | 2026-10-11 | 47 | 47 | Even |
| Marist University | None listed | 2026-10-11 | 47 | 45 | D+2.0 |
| The Trafalgar Group | None listed | 2026-10-08 | 47 | 44 | D+3.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | None listed | 2026-10-08 | 48 | 44 | D+4.0 |
| YouGov | None listed | 2026-10-05 | 50 | 44 | D+6.0 |
| Siena University | The New York Times | 2026-09-30 | 51 | 45 | D+6.0 |
| Recon MR/Siena University | The New York Times | 2026-09-30 | 51 | 45 | D+6.0 |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy | Public First Action | 2026-09-28 | 46.6 | 44.2 | D+2.4 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research | Fox News | 2026-09-28 | 51 | 49 | D+2.0 |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | None listed | 2026-09-28 | 45 | 45 | Even |
| Pulse Decision Science | Ken Paxton | 2026-09-27 | 45 | 48 | R+3.0 |
| Big Data Poll | Public Polling Project | 2026-09-26 | 45 | 42 | D+3.0 |
| Stratus Intelligence | Texans United for a Conservative Majority | 2026-09-24 | 48 | 48 | Even |
| Pulse Opinion Research | Rasmussen Reports | 2026-09-23 | 46 | 45 | D+1.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies | Texas Public Opinion Research | 2026-09-22 | 49 | 44 | D+5.0 |
| Marist University | None listed | 2026-09-20 | 50 | 44 | D+6.0 |
| Texas Southern University | None listed | 2026-09-19 | 47 | 46 | D+1.0 |
| The Trafalgar Group | None listed | 2026-09-17 | 46 | 45 | D+1.0 |
| Emerson College Polling | Nexstar Media | 2026-09-14 | 47 | 46 | D+1.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | None listed | 2026-09-11 | 49 | 43 | D+6.0 |
| Mason-Dixon | Telemundo Texas | 2026-09-10 | 46 | 43 | D+3.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | None listed | 2026-09-09 | 47 | 46 | D+1.0 |
| YouGov | Univision | 2026-09-04 | 48 | 43 | D+5.0 |
| Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research | AARP | 2026-09-01 | 48 | 44 | D+4.0 |
| Overton Insights | Texas Public Policy Foundation | 2026-08-26 | 50 | 50 | Even |
| Slingshot Strategies | Texas Public Opinion Research | 2026-08-24 | 48 | 42 | D+6.0 |
| University of Texas/YouGov | None listed | 2026-08-13 | 42 | 39 | D+3.0 |
| Emerson College | Nexstar Media | 2026-08-10 | 46.2 | 47.2 | R+1.0 |
| Texas Southern University | None listed | 2026-07-30 | 47 | 45 | D+2.0 |
| ReconMR/Siena College | Texas A&M University | 2026-07-30 | 47 | 43 | D+4.0 |
| Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research | Fox News | 2026-07-27 | 51 | 48 | D+3.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies | Texas Public Opinion Research | 2026-07-17 | 45 | 40 | D+5.0 |
| Siena College | The New York Times | 2026-06-27 | 47 | 47 | Even |
| University of Texas/YouGov | None listed | 2026-06-12 | 42 | 43 | R+1.0 |
| Texas A&M University/Siena Research Institute/ReconMR | None listed | 2026-06-04 | 46 | 46 | Even |
| Quantus Insights | None listed | 2026-06-04 | 43 | 45 | R+2.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies | Texas Public Opinion Research | 2026-05-28 | 47 | 44 | D+3.0 |
| Texas Southern University/YouGov | None listed | 2026-05-06 | 45 | 45 | Even |
| Slingshot Strategies (Talarico vs. Paxton) | None listed | 2026-04-20 | 46 | 41 | D+5.0 |
| University of Texas | None listed | 2026-04-20 | 42 | 34 | D+8.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies | Texas Public Opinion Research | 2026-04-20 | 46 | 41 | D+5.0 |
| Slingshot Strategies (Cornyn vs. Talarico) | None listed | 2026-04-20 | 44 | — | — |
| Public Policy Polling | Senate Majority PAC | 2026-03-05 | 47 | 45 | D+2.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (Cornyn vs. Talarico) | None listed | 2026-03-05 | 44 | — | — |
| Public Policy Polling (Talarico vs. Paxton) | None listed | 2026-03-05 | 47 | 45 | D+2.0 |
| Hart Research | None listed | 2026-02-12 | — | 45 | — |
| University of Houston-YouGov (Cornyn vs. Crockett) | None listed | 2026-01-30 | — | — | — |
| University of Houston-YouGov | None listed | 2026-01-30 | 44 | 46 | R+2.0 |
| University of Houston-YouGov (Crockett vs. Hunt) | None listed | 2026-01-30 | — | — | — |
| University of Houston-YouGov (Cornyn vs. Talarico) | None listed | 2026-01-30 | 43 | — | — |
| University of Houston-YouGov (Talarico vs. Paxton) | None listed | 2026-01-30 | 44 | 46 | R+2.0 |
| University of Houston-YouGov (Talarico vs. Hunt) | None listed | 2026-01-30 | 42 | — | — |
| University of Houston-YouGov (Crockett vs. Paxton) | None listed | 2026-01-30 | — | 45 | — |
| Emerson College | Nexstar Media | 2026-01-12 | 46 | 46 | Even |
| University of Houston/Texas Southern University | None listed | 2025-10-01 | 46 | 49 | R+3.0 |
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